The survey findings indicate that President Ruto currently enjoys the highest level of support among declared and potential contenders, although the numbers also reveal a fragmented opposition struggling to consolidate behind a single candidate.
According to the poll, Ruto maintains a significant advantage due to his strong support base in parts of the Rift Valley, Central Kenya and sections of the Mt Kenya region, where his administration’s economic empowerment agenda continues to resonate with segments of the electorate.
However, the report also suggests that the race is still fluid, with a large percentage of voters either undecided or open to changing their political preferences before the next General Election.
The findings are expected to intensify political calculations within opposition circles, where several prominent leaders are believed to be positioning themselves for a possible presidential bid.
Analysts say the lack of a united opposition front could work in Ruto’s favour if the current trends persist.
Among the factors influencing voter preference are the state of the economy, the rising cost of living, youth unemployment and ongoing debates around taxation and government spending.
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The poll indicates that while some Kenyans appreciate the administration’s focus on infrastructure and economic reforms, others remain concerned about the financial pressures facing ordinary households.
Political observers note that the 2027 contest is likely to revolve around coalition-building, regional voting patterns and the ability of candidates to appeal to younger voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate.
The survey further highlights growing interest in issue-based politics, with many respondents expressing a desire for leaders who can address economic challenges, improve healthcare, expand job opportunities and tackle corruption.
Even so, the findings underline the advantage enjoyed by incumbents in Kenyan politics, especially when opposition alliances remain uncertain.
Ruto’s allies have already welcomed the results, describing them as proof that the President’s policies and nationwide development tours are gaining public approval.
Opposition leaders, on the other hand, have dismissed early polling as premature, arguing that the political environment could shift dramatically before 2027.
Some have pointed to changing economic conditions and evolving alliances as factors that could alter the electoral landscape over the next two years.
With political activity already beginning to intensify across the country, the latest Tifa Research findings are likely to fuel fresh debate over who stands the best chance of leading Kenya after the next election cycle.
